UFC ESPN 1 & Bellator 215/216

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Matt Mitrione FREE Breakdown:
Sergei Kharitonov comes into this one riding high with the bookies after beating Roy Nelson, but in age 38 his abilities will probably not be improving. Mitrione has the superior technique, durability and power status which should see him with a reasonable advantage. Kharitonov will be seeking to acquire down the fight but it’s going to be difficult given Mitrione’s exceptional athleticism. Expect a tentative start from both guys before Mitrione starts accumulating strikes for a TKO stoppage.
Bet = Mitrione at 1.95 (-105) chances. Risk 3 Units to win 2.85 Units.Francis Ngannou Breakdown:
Cain is coming to this fight after a significant injury layoff. Actually he has had only 1 success because Ngannou entered the UFC, having fought 9 times himself. With so many question marks over his state the struggle seems to be lined overly wide. Ngannou clearly has enormous stopping power and will be quite dangerous on the toes . If Cain has lost a step or comes from looking slow he is in trouble. Historically his style attracts a whole lot of pressure to competitions but he is receptive to shooting shots himself, especially when gassed. Both guys have paths to success here, Ngannou can keep the fight standing and find an early KO. Cain will wish to avert the early storm and look to wear the larger man out using takedowns and cage strain. We like the underdog in what looks like a 50/50 battle going in. On the other hand, the winner of this fight is likely to seem dominant.
Bet = Ngannou in 2.65 (+165) chances. Risk 2 Units to win 3.3 Units.
James Vick Breakdown:
Vick’s inventory is at an all time low after his latest KO but his run towards the top was remarkable. Inside this matchup he’ll function as superior technical fighter with both the length and speed advantage. Felder has a tendency to mimic his opponent but he will need to turn this one into a brawl to find victory. It is possible he connects with a kill shot, but the rest of the paths to victory have been in Vick’s favour. Felder takes a close range fight to utilise his best weapons but Vick has shown he can stick to a gameplan and keep it in range. We like the line on Vick to cruise to victory with a medical decision.
Bet = Vick at 1.91 (-110) chances. Risk 3 Units to win 2.73 Units.
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